Just eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the reason of the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. When Rogers swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard query to address. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have just won a ten-match winning streak, they look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
