Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
